Two Years of War Leave Tigray’s Future Uncertain
The guns have gone quiet in northern Ethiopia. The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed November 2 and formally ending November 15, 2022, stopped a war that began in November 2020. But peace on paper does not mean peace on the ground. The conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has left a region in ruins, a population starving, and a web of international actors watching closely.
The war started with a simple dispute over autonomy. The TPLF, Tigray’s ruling party, wanted more control. The federal government in Addis Ababa refused. Tensions broke into open fighting when the Ethiopian National Defense Force, joined by the Eritrean Defence Forces and regional militias, moved into Tigray. That military intervention triggered thousands of deaths and a humanitarian catastrophe.
The numbers are brutal. Thousands dead. Thousands more displaced. The United Nations has reported on the crisis — people in need of food, water, medicine. The international community has condemned the violence. The United States, under President Biden, criticized the fighting and pushed for a resolution. The European Union spoke out. The African Union mediated. The Pretoria deal was their product.
But a signed agreement does not rebuild homes. It does not return the dead. The roots of the conflict — the struggle between federal authority and regional autonomy — remain. The TPLF still exists. The Ethiopian government still holds power. The Eritrean forces, who fought alongside the ENDF, have not formally withdrawn. What comes next is fragile.
The humanitarian crisis is immediate. Thousands of people are displaced, living in camps or with host families. The UN has documented the need for aid. Food supplies were cut during the war. Markets destroyed. Farmland burned. The harvest season was lost. Relief agencies face a massive task: feeding a region cut off for two years, rebuilding infrastructure, restoring basic services.
Then there is the question of justice. The international community has condemned human rights abuses committed during the conflict. Both sides have been accused. The United Nations has reports. The European Union has statements. The United States has called for accountability. But the Pretoria agreement says little about prosecutions. Victims may never see a courtroom.
The African Union brokered the peace, but its role does not end with the ceremony. Monitoring the ceasefire, disarming fighters, returning displaced people — these are long, grinding tasks. The AU must stay engaged. So must the international community, which has been vocal in condemnation but slower with concrete support.
The war’s end also reshapes Ethiopian politics. The TPLF once dominated the federal government. Now it is a regional party, weakened by war. The federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has consolidated power. Eritrea, under President Isaias Afwerki, remains a wild card — its troops fought in Tigray, and its interests in the region did not vanish with the peace deal.
For the people of Tigray, the war is over. The suffering is not. The Pretoria agreement stops the fighting. It does not stop the hunger, the displacement, the trauma. The international community called for an end to the violence. They got it. Now they must call for something harder: a real peace, built on aid, accountability, and a political settlement that addresses the root dispute over autonomy.
That work is just beginning. The guns are silent. The crisis is not.
