Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June, according to Galaxy Research. The firm’s head of research, Alex Thorn, argues the cryptocurrency has entered an accumulation phase and calls it “an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin.” The call arrives as Bitcoin trades around $80,000, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low.
Technical Indicators Signal a Bottom
Thorn’s case rests on a series of technical benchmarks. Bitcoin has closed five straight weeks above its 50-week average, a level it lost in November 2025 and held below for 44 weeks. Historically, reclaiming that moving average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more has preceded a year in which the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level and eventually regained its prior all-time high. The current cycle marks the fifth such reclaim since 2011.
The halving cycle further supports the view. The most recent halving occurred in 2024, and Thursday marked day 916 of that cycle. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after their respective halvings. This downturn has also been the shallowest on record, a 53% decline compared with declines of 77% to 93% in prior cycles.
Onchain Data and Market Positioning
Onchain metrics offer additional weight to the claim. For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin’s market value never fell below its realized value—the average price at which every coin last moved. The ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles. This suggests the sell-off has been contained within a narrower price band than in previous cycles.
Selling pressure appears to be easing. Long-dormant coins, unmoved for five years or more, have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, even as their holdings fell just 11% from peak to trough while the price dropped 53%. The data indicates that much of the recent selling has already been absorbed.
Macroeconomic Context and Investor Sentiment
Thorn also points to shifting macroeconomic conditions. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007. In this environment, Bitcoin’s fixed supply becomes a distinguishing feature. The report notes that short-term holders, who drove the recovery from $58,525, have an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit, while the spent-output profit ratio—a measure of whether coins are being sold at a gain—stands at 1.009, suggesting few are cashing out.
What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Price
The report concludes that the bear market is over and that the current period represents an attractive entry point. With technical floors holding, onchain data improving, and macro conditions providing a tailwind, the next directional move for Bitcoin will likely depend on whether the accumulation phase sustains or whether external fiscal pressures reassert downward pressure. Bitcoin would need to rise 53% to reclaim its October 2025 high; the S&P 500, by comparison, sits within 1% of its own record.
ETF Flows and Institutional Activity
Galaxy Research highlights a significant shift in institutional demand since the June low. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated 87,000 BTC despite price declines, with total fund holdings decreasing only 11% from peak to trough while the asset dropped 53%. This divergence suggests that net buying from institutional investors has absorbed much of the market’s recent selling pressure. The report notes that long-dormant coins, those unmoved for five years or more, have been liquidated at a rate of approximately 34,000 BTC per month this year, representing roughly half the monthly pace observed during 2024. This slowdown in long-term holder distribution further supports the view that the most intense phase of capitulation has passed.
Additionally, the composition of ETF holders has shifted. While major asset managers including Millennium Management, Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, and others reduced their spot ETF positions by between 29% and 100% between the September 2025 and June 2026 quarter-ends—a combined reduction of 68,000 BTC—other institutions entered the market. Data from 13F filings indicates that Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm, Mubadala, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council were among the buyers, collectively offsetting seller exits and contributing to the net inflow of 87,000 BTC since the June low.
Sources
- Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy' – Decrypt
- Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'
- Galaxy Calls The Bottom: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over
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