Altcoins have shed roughly $200 billion in market value and 70% of the tokens listed on Binance now trade below their 200‑day moving average, according to a CryptoQuant analyst’s post on November 7. The Altcoin Season Index, a gauge of how many top coins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, sat at 39 on November 4 — well short of the 75‑point level that signals a genuine rotation.
The Mechanics of the Washout
The 200‑day moving average separates long‑term uptrends from downtrends. Bitcoin has kept its uptrend, trading at $75,697 against a 200‑day average of $73,194, while the broad altcoin complex has lost its own. Total crypto market capitalisation fell to $2.53 trillion after a 3.6% single‑day drop, and Bitcoin’s dominance climbed to 60%, according to the same CryptoQuant data. The catch is that the 70% figure weights every Binance‑listed token equally; a thinly traded coin counts the same as Ethereum, which holds 10.7% of the total market.
Index Stalls, Dominance Holds
On November 3 the Altcoin Season Index read 47, down from 48 a day earlier and well below the 75 threshold, CoinMarketCap data show. Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.9% that day, barely changed from 60.0% a week prior. By November 4 the index had slipped to 39 while dominance edged up to 60.43%, per charts shared by Ash Crypto and cited by BeInCrypto. The TOTAL3 index — crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum — fell 1.05% to $734 billion on November 4, carving lower highs since a September peak above $850 billion. Meanwhile Tether (USDT) dominance rose to 6.993%, a sign that investors are parking capital in stablecoins rather than rotating into risk.
A Structural Shift, Not a Pause
Hyblock Capital chief executive Shubh Varma argues the classic spill‑over pattern — Bitcoin rallies, then capital rotates into smaller tokens — has broken. “I personally don’t see it happening because there’s so much other demand,” he told analyst Ray Salmond, referring to $5 XRP and $1 DOGE targets. Varma defines a true altcoin season as 75% of tracked coins beating Bitcoin over a sustained period; by that measure the market has gone 18 to 24 months without one. BlockchainCenter’s narrower index, which tracks the top 50 coins, stood at 37 on November 8 and counts 408 days since its last reading above 75.
The competition for capital has changed. Crypto exchanges now list tokenised real‑world assets — Treasury bills, commodities, real estate — and AI‑linked instruments that did not exist in previous cycles. Token Terminal put on‑chain real‑world asset value at roughly $46.2 billion in late September, with U.S. Treasuries the largest slice at about $13.9 billion. Varma’s point is not that altcoins will collapse, but that the automatic handoff from Bitcoin dominance to a broad altcoin rally can no longer be assumed.
What a Rebound Would Require
Analysts watching the charts say three levels would need to break for the debate to shift. TOTAL3 must hold the $730 billion zone that acted as support in August and mid‑September. USDT dominance would need to reject the 7.2% area that capped it in mid‑September. And the Altcoin Season Index would have to reclaim 50, let alone the 75 mark. On November 8 ATOM fell 5.5% in a smooth intraday grind, with volumes in the tens of millions and no token unlock or news catalyst — a case study in the gradual de‑risking that now characterises the altcoin tape.
Sources
- 70% of Altcoins Now Trade Below Their 200-Day Average After a $200 Billion Loss. Is Altcoin Season Off for 2026?
- Dogecoin
- Is Altseason Starting? What the Charts and Market Data Show
- [Altcoin season watch] Index falls to 47 as Bitcoin dominance stands at 59.9% | TokenPost
- Hyblock CEO Says $5 XRP and $1 DOGE Targets No Longer Realistic as Altcoin Season Fades — BigGo Finance
- ATOM Drops 5.5% Amid Broader Altcoin Market Weakness | Top Stories | CoinMarketCap
Photo: André François McKenzie / Unsplash (Unsplash License)
