SANTA FE, September 18 — New Mexico’s job growth slipped below 1% between June 2025 and June 2026, with federal workforce reductions and other losses largely erasing gains elsewhere, according to a state revenue report presented to lawmakers. The figure that matters for the state’s finances: federal government cuts stripped 2,100 jobs from New Mexico over that stretch, Taxation and Revenue Department Secretary Stephanie Schardin Clarke told the interim Revenue Stabilization and Tax Policy Committee on Monday. Job growth was concentrated in mining, retail, and state and local government.
The losses landed predominantly in the federal government, and Schardin Clarke said the cuts have produced “a weakened job market in New Mexico.” She added that the state’s unemployment rate is forecast to be “about equal” to the national rate through the end of 2030.
Where the jobs go from here
Schardin Clarke’s presentation also carried a multi-year forecast. Some industries will create thousands of new jobs between now and fiscal year 2030, she said, but those gains will likely be partially offset by cuts in other fields. Higher-wage industries — professional and technical services, construction, and healthcare — are expected to add more than 11,000 jobs in that timeframe.
Lower-wage industries such as retail and food service are expected to lose jobs over the same period, she said. Legislative Finance Committee Chief Economist Ismael Torres, who addressed lawmakers immediately after Schardin Clarke, echoed concerns raised in an August state revenue forecast that New Mexico is “industry-dependent” and vulnerable to a national economic downturn.
His presentation flagged several national risks that would acutely impact New Mexico, including a sudden stock selloff for artificial intelligence companies, changes in the Iran war, and strife at the Federal Reserve.
The oil variable
As he presented to lawmakers in August, Torres said the state is poised to see $924 million in “new money” next fiscal year, largely thanks to increased oil prices creating a new wave of tax revenue for state coffers. A $1 change in the annual average price of New Mexico oil translates to a more than $56 million impact on state revenues, according to his presentation.
“We’re seeing the slowdown in the economy that we’ve been expecting,” Torres told lawmakers, before reassuring them that the state’s projected increases in revenue for the next fiscal year are “quite healthy.” The bottom line: New Mexico’s revenue picture rests on oil prices even as its job engine sputters. Investors will note the state’s exposure runs both ways — a national downturn or a swing in crude prices moves the numbers fast.
Watch the next revenue forecast and whether the federal cuts keep deepening.
