On-chain analyst Willy Woo says Bitcoin’s current dip is a pullback within an uptrend, not the start of a bear market—and his 30-day moving-average test backs that up.
The 30-Day Moving-Average Test: How It Works
Willy Woo’s bear-market test hinges on one condition: fear must coincide with new price lows to signal a true Bitcoin bear market. His 30-day moving-average test checks whether Bitcoin is making lower lows. If not, the dip is likely a pullback within an uptrend.
Historical Precedent: Fear Without New Lows Signals Bull Markets
Woo argues that fear during early bull markets is “a gift,” citing historical examples where sentiment turned bearish before price confirmed a bottom. According to Woo, a true Bitcoin bear market has only occurred when fear coincided with new price lows, not just sentiment shifts alone.
Key Numbers: Bitcoin’s Price Action vs. Fear & Greed Index
Bitcoin’s current dip from ~$79,000 to ~$73,000 has triggered fear, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping into ‘fear’ territory. However, per Woo’s framework, Bitcoin has not made new 30-day moving-average lows, reinforcing his bullish interpretation.
Critiques and Counter-Signals: Caution Remains
Not all signals align with Woo’s bullish view. Santiment data shows bearish comments now outnumber bullish ones for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. Additionally, Wall Street’s fear gauge (VIX) spiked after a Nasdaq selloff, though crypto investors remain less fearful than stock traders.
What Comes Next: 2028 Peak Projection
Woo’s cycle data suggests Bitcoin’s next peak is likely in 2028, aligning with his view that the current dip is part of a longer uptrend. This contrasts with mainstream trader sentiment, where many have turned defensive after recent volatility.
How Traders Can Use the Test—and Its Limitations
Woo’s test is a contrarian indicator: fear without price deterioration historically precedes rallies, not crashes. However, it rests on one condition: if Bitcoin breaks to new lows while fear lingers, the test would point to a bear market instead. The figure that matters: Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average has not been broken to new lows in this dip, supporting Woo’s bullish case.
Sources
- Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market? Willy Woo’s Answer Hinges on One Test
- Wooly Willy
- Willy Woo Warns Quantum Risk Threatens Bitcoin's Gold Advantage | CoinMarketCap
- Bitcoin Could See Another Decline, Core Scientific's Mining Exit and More: This Week in Crypto
- Willy Woo Dismisses Bitcoin Bear Market Fears, Citing Historical Pattern | KuCoin
- Bitcoin Fear Returns, But Willy Woo Says The Bull Market Isn't Over | Bitcoinist.com
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