Bitcoin short-term holders moved roughly 47,300 BTC to exchanges at a loss over a 24-hour period, a combined inflow valued near $3.6 billion at a price of approximately $74,000, according to CryptoQuant data cited by Decrypt. The transfers dwarfed profitable deposits, which amounted to only about 1,100 BTC, signaling that recent buyers are capitulating as the price slides toward the low-$70,000 range.
The Mechanics Here: Defining the Cohort and the Signal
CryptoQuant generally defines short-term holders as investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This cohort is typically the most exposed to sudden price reversals because their acquisition cost sits close to the current market price. When the market turns, their unrealized losses accumulate quickly, and the decision to move coins to an exchange often precedes a sale. The data captures the transfer, not the execution, but the volume of underwater coins moving to trading venues maps the geography of stress.
The seven-day moving average of the short-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stood at about 0.99, according to CryptoQuant analyst MAC_D. A reading below 1 confirms that, on average, coins spent by this group are realizing losses rather than gains. The mechanics here are straightforward: price drops below the cohort’s cost basis, unrealized losses turn realized, and exchange wallets swell.
Follow the Money: Two Spikes in One Week
Analyst Amr Taha identified two distinct waves of loss-making deposits in the span of seven days. One week later, on November 10, they deposited another 46,060 BTC underwater. On that same day, profitable transfers stood near 1,700 BTC, meaning roughly 27 BTC arrived at a loss for every 1 BTC transferred at a profit. That ratio, Taha noted, is an unusually one-sided flow.
The November 3 spike coincided with heavy activity on Binance, where 8,114 BTC arrived from coins last moved one day to one week earlier. By November 9, as Bitcoin hit a fresh low of $72,670 — its lowest level since August 20 — exchange inflows of loss-making coins from short-term holders had plunged from 32,695 BTC to about 9,900 BTC, according to MAC_D.
Historical Context: The $73,000 Line in the Sand
The current drawdown has pushed short-term holders back into aggregate unrealized loss territory after a brief return to profit in August. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno noted that the cohort’s average cost basis sits around $75,700. Bitcoin’s drop to $72,670 places the market below that level, and a sustained break below $73,000 followed by a failed rebound would strengthen the case that the downtrend which began in November 2025 is continuing.
The catch is that similar spikes in loss-making transfers have occurred repeatedly over the last several months as Bitcoin swung between highs and lows. The latest red spike on the chart sits near the deepest readings visible since July. In past bull markets, MAC_D observed, periods of rising loss realization by short-term holders were followed by declining selling pressure that eventually became accumulation opportunities.
Inflows Versus Selling: The Distinction That Matters
CryptoQuant emphasizes that its charts measure transfers, not completed sales. Coins sent to exchanges can be used for trading other tokens, posted as collateral, or held in exchange wallets without being sold. The data does not establish how much of the 48,500 BTC in combined inflows was subsequently liquidated.
If exchange inflows from underwater short-term holders continue to decline while the price stabilizes, the selling pressure that has weighed on the market could be easing. The next test is whether Bitcoin can reclaim $73,000 or whether the downtrend structure Moreno outlined takes hold.
Sources
- Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Send $3.6 Billion in BTC to Exchanges at a Loss – Decrypt
- Proof of work
- Bitcoin short-term holders send 47K BTC to exchanges at a loss
- Short-term holders fall into losses as Bitcoin posts lowest weekly close since August
- Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Losses Deepen as Exchange Inflows Plunge, Potentially Easing Selling Pressure
- Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Send $3.6 Billion in BTC to Exchanges at a Loss
Photo: Curtis Huisman – www.curtis.media (CC BY 4.0)
